Sunday, February 5, 2017

Violence In Iraq January 2017


When government forces attacked Mosul in October 2016 the Islamic State reduced its operations across the country. That was until January 2017 when the insurgents once again began picking up their attacks.

Violence In Iraq By Month 2016-2017
Month
Incidents
Dead
Wounded
Jan
723
2,418
1,986
Feb
657
1,685
1,724
Mar
683
1,685
2,095
1st Qtr Daily
Avg/91
22.6
63.6
63.7
Apr
630
1,840
1,904
May
675
1,644
2,484
Jun
631
2,111
6,455
2nd Qtr Daily
Avg/91
21.2
61.4
119.1
Jul
531
1,329
1,708
Aug
574
1,263
1,376
Sep
573
1,203
1,602
3rd Qtr Daily
Avg/92
18.2
41.2
50.9
Oct
589
2,965
2,376
Nov
599
4,389
3,972
Dec
583
1,559
11,681
4th Qtr Daily
Avg/92
19.2
96.8
195.6
Jan 1-7
188
509
1,346
Jan 8-14
168
363
1,044
Jan 15-21
137
583
1,264
Jan 22-28
145
289
310
Jan 29-31
74
127
134
JAN
712
1,871
4,098

This change was not shown in the overall security incidents in Iraq since October because of all the fighting in Mosul. For instance, there was an average of 19.1 incidents per day in September, 19.0 in October, 19.9 in November, before going down to 18.7 in December, and then back up to 22.9 in January.

The decline however can be seen if Ninewa is removed from the average. Then there were 17.3 incidents per day in September, 14.0 in October, 12.5 in November, reaching a low of 8.6 in December, and then rising to 12.3 in January.

Avg. Security Incidents Per Day In Iraq, Sep 2016-Jan 2017
Month
Avg Incidents Per Day
Sep
19.1
Oct
19.0
Nov
19.9
Dec
18.7
Jan
22.9

Avg. Security Incidents Per Day In Iraq Minus Ninewa, Sep 2016-Jan 2017
Month
Avg Incidents Per Day
Sep
17.3
Oct
14.0
Nov
12.5
Dec
8.6
Jan
12.3

January also witnessed the second highest casualty rate since the start of 2016 due to the fighting in Mosul. There were 1,838 killed and 4,079 wounded for a total of 5,917. Only June 2016 had more with 5,577 casualties. The killed consisted of 2 fighters from the Kurdistan Freedom Party of Iran (PAK), 22 Sahwa, 57 members of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), 83 Hashd al-Shaabi, 356 members of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), and 1,351 civilians. There were also 1 Sahwa, 3 PAK, 4 Peshmerga, 73 Hashd, 1,100 ISF, and 2,917 civilians injured.

Anbar was one of the provinces that witnessed an increase in Islamic State activity. There were 50 incidents there in January for an average of 1.6 per day. That was the highest since September when there was an average of 1.8. The insurgents were back at attacking Ramadi and Fallujah and the corridor between them. That included car bombs and suicide bombers. The ISF also launched a short-lived operation in western Anbar, which is still under control of IS. Several towns were taken, but then the advance was halted in just two weeks. Baghdad called off the campaign due to the Battle for Mosul. Counter attacks against that ISF effortwere in part responsible for the increase in security incidents in the province in January.

Violence In Anbar Jan 2017
Incidents
50
Avg Incidents Per Day Sep 16-Jan 17
Sep 1.8
Oct 1.0
Nov 0.7
Dec 1.0
Jan 1.6
Killed
47
3 Hashd, 15 Civilians, 29 ISF
Wounded
92
4 Hashd, 26 ISF, 62 Civilians
Types of Attacks
14 Shootings
8 IEDs
1 Sticky Bomb
3 Suicide Bombers
1 Suicide Car Bomb
2 Car Bombs
3 Rockets
1 Bicycle Bomb Destroyed
21 Suicide Bombers Arrested/Killed
8 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed
10 Car Bombs Destroyed

There were only 8 incidents in Babil. Two IEDs were set off in Musayib and Iskandiriya each. In the former a Hashd was shot and killed. Three people, including a policeman were kidnapped, while the other two were freed.

Violence In Babil Jan 2017
Incidents
8
Killed
2
1 Civilian, 1 Hashd
Wounded
1
1 Civilian
Types of Attacks
1 Shooting
2 IEDs

Baghdad used to be the most violence governorate in Iraq, but that ended when the fight for Mosul began. The average number of incidents dropped from 10.8 in September to 4.7 in December. In January however they went up to 5.9. Part of that included a new car bomb campaign likely in response to Mosul. Vehicle borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs) went from 2 in September to 4 in October, 7 in November, 9 in December, and 16 in January. That led to a jump in casualties from 687 in December to 932 in January. As usual, most of the violence was concentrated in the north with 49 incidents and 54 in the south. That compared to 31 in the west, 38 in the east, and 10 in the center.

Car Bombs In Baghdad January 2016-January 2017
Month
Car Bombs
Jan 2016
3
Feb
1
Mar
0
Apr
8
May
13
Jun
1
Jul
4
Aug
3
Sep
2
Oct
4
Nov
7
Dec
9
Jan 2017
16

Violence In Baghdad Jan 2017
Incidents
184
Avg Incidents Per Day Sep 16-Jan 17
Sep 10.8
Oct 8.3
Nov 7.9
Dec 4.7
Jan 5.9
Killed
256
1 Sahwa, 5 Hashd, 11 ISF, 239 Civilians
Wounded
676
1 Sahwa, 3 ISF, 7 Hashd, 665 Civilians
Types of  Attacks
29 Shootings
114 IEDs
4 Sticky Bombs
1 Sound Bomb
2 Suicide Bombers
3 Suicide Car bombs
13 Car Bombs
1 Mortar
7 Suicide Bombers Killed

Diyala was another place where the Islamic State was more active. There were 50 incidents in January for an average of 1.6, the highest since 1.8 in June 2016. What hasn’t changed is the mix of low level shootings and IEDs mixed in with attempts at mass casualty bombings. During the month there was 1 suicide bomber and two car bombs, with another 6 destroyed. Politicians have complained about the growing instability in the province, and the Hashd, which is in charge of security there have been launching more sweeps through rural areas as a result. There were five during the month in places like the Hamrin Mountains, along the Salahaddin border, and others. IS has had bases there for years, which have never been cleared even when the Americans were in the country, and they continue to be a problem to this day.

Violence In Diyala Jan 2017
Incidents
50
Avg Incidents Per Day Sep 16-Jan 17
Sep 1.2
Oct 1.4
Nov 0.9
Dec 0.8
Jan 1.6
Killed
91
16 Sahwa, 17 Hashd, 22 Civilians, 36 ISF
Wounded
37
5 Civilians, 14 Hashd, 18 ISF
Types of Attacks
27 Shootings
19 IEDs
1 Suicide Bomber
1 Suicide Car Bomb
1 Car Bomb
1 Suicide Car Bomb Destroyed
5 Car Bombs Destroyed

Security remained relatively stable in Kirkuk. Most of the reported incidents were executions by the IS in Hawija, the last district in the province under militant control or people getting hit by IEDs attempting to escape from there. Hawija has also been blamed for sending in IS cells to surrounding provinces such as Salahaddin. The Kirkuk governor has consistently complained to Baghdad about the need to free the district, but with the Mosul campaign underway that is on hold.

Violence In Kirkuk Jan 2017
Incidents
26
Avg Incidents Per Day Sep 16-Jan 17
Sep 1.1
Oct 1.6
Nov 1.4
Dec 0.8
Jan 0.8
Killed
46
2 PAK, 44 Civilians
Wounded
39
3 PAK, 5 ISF, 31 Civilians
Types of Attacks
6 Shootings
5 IEDs
1 Car Bomb Destroyed

The Turkish government claimed that an air strike on Kurdistan killed 57 PKK fighters. Every few weeks Ankara launches air raids into the region, but casualties are rarely reported.

As a sign of the renewed violence by the insurgents Najaf witnessed a rare attack when 2 suicide bombers and a car bomb were set off, with another car bomb destroyed at a checkpoint. 10 people were killed and 15 wounded as a result.

The fighting for Mosul dominated Ninewa. There were 329 incidents leading to 1,241 dead and 3,110 wounded. A third of the injured was a cumulative figure for ISF for the entire Mosul campaign that was reported during the month. Three quarters of the casualties were civilians who have paid the highest cost for the fighting in the governorate. Even after east Mosul was freed a huge number of people have been hit by IS shelling forcing hundreds of people to flee their homes. The Islamic State was also accused of executing 156 people, while Coalition air strikes were blamed for 321 deaths and 259 wounded.

Violence In Ninewa Jan 2017
Incidents
329
Killed
1,241
24 Hashd, 231 ISF, 986 Civilians
Wounded
3,110
1 Peshmerga, 6 Hashd, 1,1012 ISF, 2,091 Civilians
Types of Attacks
63 Shootings
20 IEDs
6 Suicide Bombers
1 Suicide Motorcycle Bomb
6 Suicide Car Bombs
15 Car Bombs
9 Drone Attacks
49 Mortars
19 Rockets
1 Mine
23 Suicide Bombers Killed
19 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed
273 Car Bombs Destroyed

Salahaddin was another province that witnessed an increase in attacks. There were an average of 1.8 in January, the most since 2.1 in January. Like Diyala, IS has been launching more mass casualty bombings with 2 car bombs and 4 suicide bombers with another 12 killed and 9 destroyed respectively. Most of this violence is concentrated in the east where IS still has bases along the Diyala and Kirkuk borders.

Violence In Salahaddin Jan 2017
Incidents
56
Avg Incidents Per Day Sep 16-Jan 17
Sep 1.5
Oct 0.9
Nov 0.9
Dec 0.6
Jan 1.8
Killed
120
5 Sahwa, 33 Hashd, 40 Civilians, 42 ISF
Wounded
128
3 Peshmerga, 36 ISF, 42 Hashd, 47 Civilians
Types of Attacks
30 Shootings
8 IEDs
4 Suicide Bombers
1 Suicide Motorcycle Bomb
1 Car Bomb
4 Mortars
1 Mine
12 Suicide Bombers Killed
9 Car Bombs Destroyed/Dismantled

Wasit also witnessed a rare security incident when a car bomb was discovered, the driver arrested, and the bomb defused.

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